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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on surface air temperature (SAT) and winds in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) are investigated by performing simulations from 1970 to 2099 with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), driven by a five-member ensemble. Three members are from Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) simulations following scenario A1B from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); one member is from the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) simulation, also following the A1B scenario; and one member is from the CCSM4 (version 4) simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data, it is shown that CRCM can reproduce the observed SAT spatial patterns; for example, both CRCM simulations and NARR data show a warm SAT tongue along the eastern Gulf; CRCM simulations also capture the dominant northwesterly winds in January and the southwesterly winds in July. In terms of future climate scenarios, the spatial patterns of SAT show plausible seasonal variations. In January, the warming is 3°–3.5°C in the northern Gulf and 2.5°–3°C near Cabot Strait during 2040–2069, whereas the warming is more uniform during 2070–2099, with SAT increases of 4°–5°C. In summer, the warming gradually decreases from the western side of the GSL to the eastern side because of the different heat capacities between land and water. Moreover, the January winds increase by 0.2–0.4?m?s?1 during 2040–2069, related to weakening stability in the atmospheric planetary boundary layer. However, during 2070–2099, the winds decrease by 0.2–0.4?m?s?1 over the western Gulf, reflecting the northeastward shift in northwest Atlantic storm tracks. In July, enhanced baroclinicity along the east coast of North America dominates the wind changes, with increases of 0.2–0.4?m?s?1. On average, the variance for the SAT changes is about 10% of the SAT increase, and the variance for projected wind changes is the same magnitude as the projected changes, suggesting uncertainty in the latter.  相似文献   
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Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic.  相似文献   
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An evaluation has been conducted to establish if using renewable energy is technically and economically feasible to pump water in Sacala las Lomas, Guatemala. A deep groundwater well has been proposed and a multi-stage pump system is being considered to distribute groundwater to users’ homes. A weather station was erected in Sacala to collect site-specific data. Wind velocity, wind direction, solar insolation, temperature, precipitation, and barometric pressure data were collected over a 1-year study period. The analysis of the data indicated that the potential power generated by a photovoltaic array or wind turbine would be insufficient to economically pump water to the village under current conditions. Although there may be reasons other than economics that make the potential renewable energy applications attractive, the space and maintenance required to install and operate a sufficient off-grid system outweigh the benefits. A grid-intertie system would allow any number of solar panels to be used in the system while still providing the electricity demand using grid-power.  相似文献   
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This study describes the reduction of functionalised model compounds to their corresponding hydrocarbons by catalytic hydropyrolysis to provide information on the release of biomarkers from kerogens and asphaltenes covalently bound through the functional groups investigated. Five model compounds were investigated, the n-C18 carboxylic acids, stearic and oleic acids; the C24 steroidal acid, 5β-cholanic acid; and the saturated and unsaturated C27 sterols, 5α-cholestanol and cholesterol. The yield and distribution of the hydrocarbons generated were assessed for the model compounds adsorbed to silica and carbon substrates, and unsupported on a bed of catalyst. The n-C18 acids are shown to be reduced to the n-C18 alkane, with a selectivity of >95% for stearic acid, although due to its unsaturated structure, oleic acid is prone to cracking, with shorter chained n-alkanes also being formed. The conversion of these compounds, adsorbed to either silica or carbon is relatively low, even at hydropyrolysis temperatures significantly above their boiling point, suggesting that interactions between the acids and substrate leading to the formation of stable entities (Si–O–C linkages in the case of silica) significantly retard volatilisation. The yield can be increased by placing the compounds directly onto a bed of catalyst, but for low boiling compounds such as stearic acid this can result in volatilisation and cracking at temperatures below that of the activation point of the catalyst. This method produced improved yields of >95% pure product for higher boiling compounds such as 5β-cholanic acid. The presence of the functional group attached to the ring system of compounds such as 5α-cholestanol does not diminish the selectivity of the technique. The double bond in cholesterol resulted in more incomplete hydrogenation with sterenes being generated, and in addition to 5α and 5β-cholestane, diasteranes were also generated via migration of the double bond.  相似文献   
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